Question For Raiders regarding OGD & rx

[MickyD]

Raiders,

I enjoy the fued between you and Kodiak, MFG, Shack, and all the others as much as the next person. (Good yuks for the most part) Not sure the real history among all of you as to fued but I have a serious question for you.

You are constantly proclaiming how great it is at OGD, Brilliant cappers, great info, no egos, etc.... Most of what you say is indeed true, however you do not really tell the true story. I will give a few reasons:

1. Sharp plays - While everyone likes to be on the sharp side for obvious reasons, by the time these lines are posted at OGD the line has moved - unless you have Cris and the $500 a month subscription combined with a slow book, you can never get the line the sharps do. Sometimes the number middles and the follower loses while the sharps win. Also most of line value is lost.

2. You always count the books needs as wins. Duh if the public won more than loses there would not be many books. In addition, most of the time these needs are not expressed till last minute resulting in same problem as with sharp plays. Lines have changed or most people have already committed a bet in other direction.

3. Only counting and posting cappers with winning days. While this makes it look good for the OGD it really doesn't make for more winning, as followers may have bet with a capper that had a bad day. Since fewer are allowed to post at OGD and they are handpicked, IMO it is a natural result that overall record is good. If the rx posted only winning cappers day, (and especially the veterans with proven track records - I feel their results would be similar) The same problem still exists at both places, if you follow the wrong capper at the wrong time you can and will lose big.

4. Juice - I very rarely see the juice reflected in records (even daily) at OGD. While that also happens at rx, most cappers track that in overall and daily threads. Example take a sample from OGD: 55-33 on day accounting for juice, not even including bought hooks, you must take an additional 3.3 units off that total. This adds up giantly over a week and month.

Sorry about the long post, and getting to the question, Raiders is it not fair to say both places offer great information, and knowledge? The real focus should be on the helping to educate gamblers, not 1 upsmonship by certain cappers to feed their egos. Real people lose real money gambling and many of those people look to these forums for help. Hansen had a great post last football season about what can happen by blindly following others plays. And believe me, I can tell the same story. (Probably many others on here can also) Part 2 of question is - Since OGD is predominately a books forum, should the public maybe be leery of some of the advice being offered by the books?

P.S. Disregarding sharps plays and needs, I don't see overall any better capping by OGD as opposed to rx. Would love to hear others opinions and comments.

 

[Journeyman]

Great post..Raiders is delusional....and a complete hypocrite. if he spent 50% of the energy he wastes researching old posts to try to make posters look bad on something positive he would probably be a much happier person....

I sense Raiders is a lonely,, mean, bitter person... I say this only to help him, he needs it.

 

[drunkguy]

...

MickyD,

You asked some very good questions.

1. You are correct that the line has moved many times off of what is listed as a sharp play. The suggestion is not to make the play if the line has moved. If you have a sleepie book or a service such as G&J many times you will be able to find the lines.

2. If Dime, Keith or Dicky list their needs I count both the wins and losses in the overall total.

3. This is wrong saying that only winning cappers are included in the overall record. All cappers plays are counted in the overall record. We only post the names of the guys that won but all cappers are included. This is our third football season of TFZ. Two of them were at the RX and we posted the exact same way. Check out the record of TFZ in the RR. Our plays are all posted. You'd be surprised at how well we have done.

4. Juice is always counted. If a guy doesn't list the vig it's -110. Many times we take ML dogs +290 etc. That's why we can have a 10-10 day but be up. I make many mistakes when I do the totals because of the volume of plays. You'll find that the mistakes go both ways unlike what I have found with cappers in other forums. Mistakes always are in their favor.

5. Capping is much better at TFZ than the RX. I watch cappers from many boards. When I see someone that is good I ask them to join us. OldmanTed and Chriscol were recruited from the RX. Many records are padded at the RX. If their is someone that is good that is spotted by any TFZ member we will give him an invite.

If you have any other questions feel free to ask.

Thanks,
Raiders

 

[drunkguy]

J-man...no need to take shots at people when they can't respond because of banning

Micky...my take on some of what you asked

so what if the line has moved on the sharp plays?...at least you know who moved it and why it moved...will keep me off the other sides many times...also many of those have been posted with plenty of time to catch it somewhere...

same thing with book needs...sometimes it is obvious, but sometimes not really. Again, the more solid info I have the happoer I am, and the book guys over at TFZ are very good.

the rest of your questions seem to be directed towards "records"...personally I don't care for them...since it is an "invite only" spot, you get to know what everyone's strong spots are, etc. I agree the record keeping could be better, but it is a hell of a lot of work, especially during college basketball season...right now there are people posting props, soccer, tennis, football, different lines, teasers, etc, etc

I agree there are many great cappers here at RX (in fact many cross-post, I post my college FB at 4 forums myself including here). The problem is the RX is so big, that trying to find the plays of the people you want is often difficult. Then you have jackasses going into other's threads to flame them, people bumping their own plays, threads turning into random conversations with a few picks thrown in, etc. TFZ is a nice place to consolidate information...1 daily thread with all the plays and little BS

remember, as far as I know, raiders doesn't get paid for upkeeping TFZ. It would be great to have every single bet there tracked by sport, poster, etc, but entirely too much work to ask of someone

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

It used to be you can edit your plays anytime you want without it showing up over in the TFZ. That might have been changed but I know it used to be that way and no record of you editing anything would show up. I went to change something once that had nothing to do with a pick and I was able to do that without it showing up anywhere. Is that still the same way? Nothing turns 50% cappers into 60% quicker than an edit/delete button.

TFZ does have value, it's nice when a guy like Dime who has a square base will tell you his needs and what is what. Can be tough these days even for experienced bettors to always tell where is the square/sharp money, much simpler for a local to make that available. Overall both sites have sharps and both sites have squares though probably more of both here since the site is so much bigger. Surely there is no inordinate amount of quality capper over there that is not present here, to say otherwise is foolish.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

1. i list sharp action that i write.........one group ALWAYS moves the line across the board.......yes unless you are dealing with a slow moving book, you are unlikely to get the same number......the other group frequently bets the backside of bw's moves.......those numbers are almost always available......both groups are winners at the end of the year.....


2. edit button.......i use it, but i dont erase and add.......i just add to whatever i previously wrote.........



micky is talking about steam plays...........i dont list steam plays......i list what action i take.........steam plays are useless unless you are the originator.....



i take every effort to make sure what i post is accurate and TIMELY....meaning i try to give needs in a time frame that allows a person to follow accordingly.........


i started doing this following Judge, max, and dickyw lead......at THERX........information is key...........how a person chooses to use it, is why i will always be in business.....

 

[hondaman1]

McStiff did you pay your debt to DAVE yet

It used to be you can edit your plays anytime you want without it showing up over in the TFZ. That might have been changed but I know it used to be that way and no record of you editing anything would show up. I went to change something once that had nothing to do with a pick and I was able to do that without it showing up anywhere. Is that still the same way? Nothing turns 50% cappers into 60% quicker than an edit/delete button.

TFZ does have value, it's nice when a guy like Dime who has a square base will tell you his needs and what is what. Can be tough these days even for experienced bettors to always tell where is the square/sharp money, much simpler for a local to make that available. Overall both sites have sharps and both sites have squares though probably more of both here since the site is so much bigger. Surely there is no inordinate amount of quality capper over there that is not present here, to say otherwise is foolish.

 

[CalmMcEnroe]

McStiff did you pay your debt to DAVE yet

TFZ is an excellent source for info. As far as the lines moving when some of us take them and then no value for people that see it later, I have started doing something the last few weeks.

Basically, I cap the games and tell you what my lines and totals come out at. Most of the time I'm within a point or two but there are times that I'm more than that away. The lines I come up with don't mean what lines I think the books will put out. They are my actual lines without any influences other than the things I figure into my capping.

Anyway, if I have TCU beating Southern Miss by 6 and the line comes out TCU -2.5, you'll have that information and if there is value you bet it.

It's the only thing I could think of to do for the people who complained that even though I got a -12.5 -120 when it opened, the line is now -16.5.

It's the best I've thought of so far.

 

[drunkguy]

It used to be you can edit your plays anytime you want without it showing up over in the TFZ. That might have been changed but I know it used to be that way and no record of you editing anything would show up. I went to change something once that had nothing to do with a pick and I was able to do that without it showing up anywhere. Is that still the same way? Nothing turns 50% cappers into 60% quicker than an edit/delete button.

...

Posts cannot be edited after 10 minutes. Post any further questions across the street. It's much easier to talk about gambling there. You don't have to but up with the childish posts that you see at the RX.

Thanks,
Raiders

that was done when some contests were being run...having no edit feature suxks in case you have a typo or want to add something. The 10 minute limit on editing seems to work fine

 

[MickyD]

Thanks for replies guys. Dime, Raiders, was never questioning the validity of your info, just pointing out that if one is not careful, that information can lead to making foolish bankroll decisions. By this I mean, betting more than usual because of the information provided. I have gotten off plays because of their being opposite sharps and sometimes that backfires.

you are correct as to the rx being overrun with flaming and such crap as play of the year, etc.. Raiders you do seem to like to point out bad days people at rx have. ( maybe this has to do with your fued). I guess it all comes down to money management and discipline. Dime I have read many posts of yours that stress that, If only it was that easy to listen to your great advice, there would be far fewer broke gamblers. Good for gamblers bad for you.

Drunk, thanks for taking the time to respond and answering questions in a respectful manner. You brought to my attention some very valid and valuable reasoning.

 

[FatClemenza]

Good thread. Well done MickyD.

 

[drunkguy]

Dime, Raiders, was never questioning the validity of your info, just pointing out that if one is not careful, that information can lead to making foolish bankroll decisions. By this I mean, betting more than usual because of the information provided. I have gotten off plays because of their being opposite sharps and sometimes that backfires.

Absolutely true and hopefully something people think about. I've done the same myself, we all sometimes do, by loading up on games that seem too easy. even if it is one of the best bets out there, what can the long-term win% be, maybe 65% at most? You still lose a good % of the time even with the best opportunities.

Drunk, thanks for taking the time to respond and answering questions in a respectful manner. You brought to my attention some very valid and valuable reasoning.

No problem, man. I think sometimes people forget we are all here to help each other out and share our information and experience.

 

[drunkguy]

Also want to comment on this is regards to making bet selections:

You always count the books needs as wins. Duh if the public won more than loses there would not be many books.

remember, you are laying -110 each time you make a bet. You need to hit 52.4% to come out ahead.

But a book is taking the bet at +110. They need better than only 47.6% success to come out ahead.

Granted, books are not always going to balance, and some decisions will be more important than others. But remember that the odds are in their favor, so even a 50% overall on book needs would show a small profit to the book but a small loss to players following them.

 

[DickyW]

As stated the TFZ is an information source thats it, nothing more nothing less. No touts, no blowing one another, no flaming, no bumping, just opinions and info. The info or opinions of the posters there may persuade you to play a certain side or to fade it, simple as that. Before OGD and the TFZ the same exact thread was down here in the RR. A bunch of serious bettors who exchanged info and opinions and had no desire to have their ass kissed for doing it.

 

[1cheater]

As stated the TFZ is an information source thats it, nothing more nothing less. No touts, no blowing one another, no flaming, no bumping, just opinions and info. The info or opinions of the posters there may persuade you to play a certain side or to fade it, simple as that. Before OGD and the TFZ the same exact thread was down here in the RR. A bunch of serious bettors who exchanged info and opinions and had no desire to have their ass kissed for doing it.

The NAIL has been hit on the head, CASE CLOSED...

 

[CedarCreaker]

Used to look some at TFZ when here on the rx as own area...where is it now????

 

[CalmMcEnroe]

Used to look some at TFZ when here on the rx as own area...where is it now????

Hopefully I dont get banned for saying this but its at www.offshoregamblersdigest.com .